UFWC What-Ifs

[netzakh]

On this website and on this forum, there were several instances of the question:

What would have happened to UFWC if a game on YYYY-MM-DD had produced the opposite result?

which can be re-stated as

If the game on YYYY-MM-DD had ended differently, when would UFWC converge to its official track?

Note that the issue of certain games (not) counted as UFWC title matches is just a special case of this general question. Thus, I propose this thread for research on the following kinds of deviations from the accepted UFWC path:

• if a single outcome changes to the opposite (which includes the case of a UFWC title-change match not counted as a UFWC title match);
  
• if a game not counted as of now is included (this game should be real);
  
• (rarely) if an entire friendly tournament is not included.
  

In all these cases, the extant UFWC rules for inclusion are followed after the deviation.

A classical example is Korea Rep vs Colombia, www.rsssf.com/tablesh/hk-carls95.html, 1995-01-31:

1995-01-31 KOR 1-0 COL WHAT IF not counted
1995-02-04 COL 3-1 HKG Colombia - may count or not, but it does not matter
1995-02-08 AUS 0-0 COL Colombia
1995-02-11 AUS 0-1 COL Colombia
1995-03-22 COL 2-1 URU Colombia
1995-06-17 COL 1-0 NGA Colombia
1995-06-21 COL 0-0 MEX Colombia
1995-06-25 USA 0-0 COL Colombia
1995-07-07 COL 1-1 PER Colombia
1995-07-10 COL 1-0 ECU Colombia
1995-07-13 BRA 3-0 COL Brazil
1995-07-17 BRA 2-2 ARG (Pen 4-2) Brazil
1995-07-20 BRA 1-0 USA Brazil
1995-07-23 URU 1-1 BRA (Pen 5-3) Uruguay
1995-09-20 ISR 3-1 URU Israel
1995-10-11 ISR 2-0 AZE Israel
1995-11-15 FRA 2-0 ISR France
1996-01-24 FRA 3-2 POR France
1996-02-21 FRA 3-1 GRE France
1996-03-27 BEL 0-2 FRA France
1996-05-29 FRA 2-0 FIN France
1996-06-01 GER 0-1 FRA France
1996-06-05 FRA 2-0 ARM France
1996-06-10 FRA 1-0 ROM France
1996-06-15 FRA 1-1 ESP France
1996-06-18 FRA 3-1 BUL France
1996-06-22 FRA 0-0 NED (Pen 5-4) France
1996-06-26 CZE 0-0 FRA (Pen 6-5) Czech Republic, CONVERGENCE

[netzakh]

Some five years ago, I decided to make my own check of UFWC results with using as many sources as possible, and while I logically arrived at the same conclusion as the mainline UFWC, there was one piece of information which really puzzled me.

In the Elo ratings website, I encountered a game on 2005-09-24 not mentioned in FIFA as well as several other sources like RSSSF lists of Zimbabwe and Malawi matches

www.eloratings.net/Zimbabwe.htm

Further research revealed that this was called Mozambique 30 Years Independence Cup:

www.rsssf.com/tablesm/mff-indep30-05.html

While the games involving Zambia B were definitely not full internationals, I would not be surprised if the reason why the other fixtures were not either is exactly like with 2013 King's Cup in Thailand: the bureaucrats did not inform their continental federation in time.

Thus,

2005-09-24 MWI 2-0 ZIM Malawi WHAT IF counted
2005-10-08 MWI 3-0 KEN Malawi
2006-06-24 MWI 1-1 ZIM (Pen 2-1) Malawi
2006-06-25 MOZ 1-2 MWI Malawi
2006-07-06 MWI 2-1 BOT Malawi
2006-07-08 MWI 0-0 BOT (Pen 2-3) Botswana
2006-08-05 UGA 0-0 BOT (Pen 3-1) Uganda
2006-08-16 LBY 3-2 UGA Libya
2006-08-26 YEM 0-1 LBY Libya
2006-08-29 YEM 1-1 LBY Libya
2006-09-03 ETH 1-0 LBY Ethiopia
2006-10-07 NAM 1-0 ETH Namibia
2006-11-15 ZIM 3-2 NAM Zimbabwe
2007-03-25 ZIM 1-1 MAR Zimbabwe
2007-04-28 ZIM 1-0 MAD Zimbabwe
2007-04-29 MOZ 0-0 ZIM (Pen 5-4) Mozambique
2007-06-03 MOZ 3-1 BFA Mozambique
2007-06-17 MOZ 0-0 SEN Mozambique
2007-08-20 MOZ 0-0 ZIM (Pen 3-1) Mozambique
2007-09-08 TAN 0-1 MOZ Mozambique
2007-09-29 ZAM 3-0 MOZ Zambia
2007-10-24 RSA 0-0 ZAM (Pen 4-3) South Africa
2007-11-17 RSA 0-1 USA United States
2008-01-19 USA 2-0 SWE United States
2008-02-06 USA 2-2 MEX United States
2008-03-26 POL 0-3 USA United States
2008-05-28 ENG 2-0 USA England
2008-06-01 TRI 0-3 ENG England
2008-08-20 ENG 2-2 CZE England
2008-09-06 AND 0-2 ENG England
2008-09-10 CRO 1-4 ENG England
2008-10-11 ENG 5-1 KAZ England
2008-10-15 BLR 1-3 ENG England
2008-11-19 GER 1-2 ENG England
2009-02-11 ESP 2-0 ENG Spain
2009-03-28 ESP 1-0 TUR Spain
2009-04-01 TUR 1-2 ESP Spain
2009-06-09 AZE 0-6 ESP Spain
2009-06-14 ESP 5-0 NZL Spain
2009-06-17 ESP 1-0 IRQ Spain
2009-06-20 RSA 0-2 ESP Spain
2009-06-24 USA 2-0 ESP United States
2009-06-28 BRA 3-2 USA Brazil
2009-08-12 EST 0-1 BRA Brazil
2009-09-05 ARG 1-3 BRA Brazil
2009-09-09 BRA 4-2 CHI Brazil
2009-10-11 BOL 2-1 BRA Bolivia
2009-10-14 PER 1-0 BOL Peru
2009-11-18 HON 1-2 PER Peru
2010-09-04 CAN 0-2 PER Peru
2010-09-07 PER 2-1 JAM Peru
2010-10-08 PER 2-0 CRC Peru
2010-10-12 PAN 1-0 PER Panama
2010-10-26 PAN 0-3 CUB Cuba
2010-11-10 CUB 4-2 DMA Cuba {DMA = Dominica}
2010-11-12 CUB 3-3 SUR Cuba
2010-11-14 ATG 0-0 CUB Cuba {ATG = Antigua nad Barbuda}
2010-11-26 CUB 2-0 TRI Cuba
2010-11-30 CUB 0-0 GRN Cuba {GRN = Grenada}
2010-12-05 CUB 1-0 GRN Cuba
2011-03-24 CUB 0-1 SLV El Salvador
2011-03-29 SLV 2-3 JAM Jamaica
2011-06-06 JAM 4-0 GRN Jamaica
2011-06-10 JAM 2-0 GUA Jamaica
2011-06-13 JAM 1-0 HON Jamaica
2011-06-19 USA 2-1 JAM United States
2011-06-22 USA 1-0 PAN United States
2011-06-25 USA 2-4 MEX Mexico
2011-07-04 CHI 2-1 MEX Chile
2011-07-08 CHI 1-1 URU Chile
2011-07-12 CHI 2-1 PER Chile
2011-07-17 VEN 2-1 CHI Venezuela
2011-07-20 PAR 0-0 VEN (Pen 5-3) Paraguay
2011-07-24 URU 3-0 PAR Uruguay
2011-09-02 UKR 2-3 URU Uruguay
2011-10-07 URU 4-2 BOL Uruguay
2011-10-11 PAR 1-1 URU Uruguay
2011-11-11 URU 4-0 CHI Uruguay
2011-11-15 ITA 0-1 URU Uruguay
2012-02-29 ROU 1-1 URU Uruguay
2012-05-25 RUS 1-1 URU Uruguay
2012-06-02 URU 1-1 VEN Uruguay
2012-06-10 URU 4-2 PER Uruguay
2012-08-15 FRA 0-0 URU Uruguay
2012-09-07 COL 4-0 URU Colombia
2012-09-11 CHI 1-3 COL Colombia
2012-10-12 COL 2-0 PAR Colombia
2012-10-16 COL 3-0 CMR Colombia
2012-11-14 COL 1-1 BRA Colombia
Not converged yet, next fixture:
2013-02-06 COL - GUA

It also happens that nearly every single deviation from UFWC between 1999 and 2009 ends with Colombia today, i.e., the UFWC track has been very atypical.

[netzakh]

The track if this problematic friendly is not counted.

2005-11-16 ROM 3-0 NGA WHAT IF not counted
2006-01-23 NGA 1-0 GHA Nigeria
2006-01-27 NGA 2-0 ZIM Nigeria
2006-01-31 NGA 2-1 SEN Nigeria
2006-02-04 NGA 1-1 TUN (Pen 6-5) Nigeria
2006-02-07 CIV 1-0 NGA Ivory Coast
2006-02-10 EGY 0-0 CIV (Pen 4-2) Egypt
2006-06-03 ESP 2-0 EGY Spain
2006-06-07 ESP 2-0 CRO Spain
2006-06-14 ESP 4-0 UKR Spain
2006-06-19 ESP 3-1 TUN Spain
2006-06-23 ESP 1-0 KSA Spain {KSA = Saudi Arabia}
2006-06-27 FRA 3-1 ESP France
2006-07-01 FRA 1-0 BRA France
2006-07-05 FRA 1-0 POR France
2006-07-09 ITA 1-1 FRA (Pen 5-3) Italy
2006-08-16 ITA 0-2 CRO Croatia
2006-09-06 RUS 0-0 CRO Croatia
2006-10-07 CRO 7-0 AND Croatia
2006-10-11 CRO 2-0 ENG Croatia
2006-11-15 ISR 3-4 CRO Croatia
2007-02-07 CRO 2-1 NOR Croatia
2007-03-24 CRO 2-1 MKD Croatia
2007-06-02 EST 0-2 CRO Croatia
2007-06-06 CRO 0-0 RUS Croatia
2007-08-22 BIH 3-5 CRO Croatia
2007-09-08 CRO 2-0 EST Croatia
2007-09-12 AND 0-6 CRO Croatia
2007-10-13 CRO 1-0 ISR Croatia
2007-10-16 CRO 3-0 SVK Croatia
2007-11-17 MKD 2-0 CRO Macedonia FYR
2007-11-21 ISR 1-0 MKD Israel
2008-02-06 ISR 1-0 ROU Israel
2008-03-26 ISR 1-0 CHI Israel
2008-08-20 FIN 2-0 ISR Finland
2008-09-10 FIN 3-3 GER Finland
2008-10-11 FIN 1-0 AZE Finland
2008-10-15 RUS 3-0 FIN Russia
2009-03-28 RUS 2-0 AZE Russia
2009-04-01 LIE 0-1 RUS Russia
2009-06-10 FIN 0-3 RUS Russia
2009-08-12 RUS 2-3 ARG Argentina
2009-09-05 ARG 1-3 BRA Brazil
Continues as above, not converged yet, next fixture:
2013-02-06 COL - GUA

[schnapper]

Very nice work!

So if tomorrow Argentina gain the 'official' title against Sweden and Colombia do not lose to Guatemala, there's a fairly chance of convergence as both teams will meet in a WC qualifier in June and are in the same qualification group.

I hope this scenario will happen in order to make everyone agree.

[netzakh]

Note to the previous post: the aim of this thread is not to create disagreement. So here is an example of a what-if thread generated by a game whose status and outcome are not disputed by anyone.

2010-07-11 ESP 1-0 NED WHAT IF not counted
2010-08-11 UKR 1-1 NED Netherlands
2010-09-03 SMR 0-5 NED Netherlands {SMR = San Marino}
2010-09-07 NED 2-1 FIN Netherlands
2010-10-08 MDA 0-1 NED Netherlands {MDA = Moldova}
2010-10-12 NED 4-1 SWE Netherlands
2010-11-17 NED 1-0 TUR Netherlands
2011-02-09 NED 3-1 AUT Netherlands
2011-03-25 HUN 0-4 NED Netherlands
2011-03-29 NED 5-3 HUN Netherlands
2011-06-04 BRA 0-0 NED Netherlands
2011-06-08 URU 1-1 NED (Pen 4-3) Uruguay
2011-06-23 URU 3-0 EST Uruguay
2011-07-04 URU 1-1 PER Uruguay
2011-07-08 URU 1-1 CHI Uruguay
2011-07-12 URU 1-0 MEX Uruguay
2011-07-16 ARG 1-1 URU (Pen 4-5) Uruguay
2011-07-19 PER 0-2 URU Uruguay
2011-07-24 URU 3-0 PAR Uruguay
Continues as above, not converged yet, next fixture:
2013-02-06 COL - GUA

As to convergence, according to FIFA the next fixtures of Argentina are Sweden, Venezuela, Bolivia, Colombia; those of Colombia are Guatemala, Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina. Indeed, the convergence is quite possible here.

Update for several What-If threads: Colombia 4-1 Guatemala, next fixture:
2013-03-22 Colombia—Bolivia

Update for several What-If threads: Colombia 5-0 Bolivia, next fixture:
2013-03-26 Venezuela—Colombia

[netzakh]

Yet another what-if thread.

2013-01-23 PRK 1-1 SWE (Pen 1-4) WHAT IF not counted
2013-01-26 THA 2-2 PRK Korea DPR - by the UFWC rules, this game counts
2013-01-31 PRK 1-0 UAE Korea DPR - status unclear, see comments
2013-02-06 PRK 1-0 LAO Korea DPR
Continues as above, not converged yet, next fixture TBD

Notes: there is an interesting source of information about Korea DPR team:
northkoreafootball.blogspot.com/
As for the 2013-01-31 game mentioned there with a reference to the UAE FA website, even if that game had satisfied UFWC rules, its inclusion or non-inclusion would not change the next fixture.

[netzakh]

Update for several What-If threads: Venezuela 1-0 Colombia, next fixture:
2013-06-07 Bolivia—Venezuela

[netzakh]

Update for several What-If threads: all games since 2013-01-01.

2013-02-06 COL 4-1 GUA Colombia
2013-03-22 COL 5-0 GUA Colombia
2013-03-26 VEN 1-0 COL Venezuela
2013-05-22 VEN 2-1 SLV Venezuela
2013-06-07 BOL 1-1 VEN Venezuela
2013-06-11 VEN 0-1 URU Uruguay
Not converged yet, next fixture:
2013-06-16 URU - ESP (FIFA Confederations Cup)

Update for the Korea DPR What-If thread.

2013-06-11 QAT 0-0 PRK Korea DPR
Not converged yet, next fixture:
TBD

[netzakh]

Update for several What-If threads: 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup.

2013-06-16 ESP 2-1 URU Spain
2013-06-20 ESP 10-0 TAH Spain
2013-06-23 ESP 3-0 NGA Spain
2013-06-27 ESP 0-0 ITA (Pen 7-6) Spain
2013-06-30 BRA 3-0 ESP Brazil
Not converged yet, next fixture:
2013-08-14 SUI - BRA (NB: If Switzerland wins, this what-if thread will follow UFEC for some time.)

[nihanram]

Feb 8, 2013 13:54:59 GMT netzakh said:

Yet another what-if thread.

2013-01-23 PRK 1-1 SWE (Pen 1-4) WHAT IF not counted
2013-01-26 THA 2-2 PRK Korea DPR - by the UFWC rules, this game counts
2013-01-31 PRK 1-0 UAE Korea DPR - status unclear, see comments
2013-02-06 PRK 1-0 LAO Korea DPR
Continues as above, not converged yet, next fixture TBD

Notes: there is an interesting source of information about Korea DPR team:
northkoreafootball.blogspot.com/
As for the 2013-01-31 game mentioned there with a reference to the UAE FA website, even if that game had satisfied UFWC rules, its inclusion or non-inclusion would not change the next fixture.

Logically speaking this is the pathway UFWC should have taken, not gng bck to Europe for some more time.

2013-06-11       QAT 0-0 PRK   Korea DPR
2013-09-06      KUW 2-1 PRK  Kuwait
2013-09-09      KUW 2-1 BHR  Kuwait
2013-10-09      JOR 1-1  KUW  Kuwait
2013-10-15      LEB  1-1  KUW  Kuwait
2013-11-08      KUW 3-0  MAL   Kuwait
2013-11-19      KUW  3-1 THA   Kuwait
2013-12-29      KUW  2-0 LEB   Kuwait
2014-01-01      KUW  1-2  JOR  Jordan

[fred]

What if... the Victory Tournament after World War I counted?

Ireland was the UFWC during WWI, after which it played a benefit game against England 12 October 1918 that ended 0-0, this however can't be counted as full international, mostly because there were also non-English players on the English side.

A few months later however, there was a Victory Tournament between the British national teams, its games aren't recognized as full internationals, but theorically they can also be counted.

12/10/1918  Ireland 0 0 England (should not be counted anyway, but it doesn't matter so much)
22/03/1919 Scotland 2 1 Ireland Scotland (what if this and the following five games count)
19/04/1919  Ireland 0 0 Scotland
26/04/1919  England 2 2 Scotland
03/05/1919 Scotland 3 4 England England
11/10/1919    Wales 2 1 England Wales
18/10/1919  England 2 0 Wales   England
25/10/1919  Ireland 1 1 England (this game is also on UFWC, but Ireland held the title)
15/03/1920  England 1 2 Wales   Wales
12/02/1921 Scotland 2 1 Wales   Scotland
26/02/1921  Ireland 0 2 Scotland

09/04/1921 Scotland 3 0 England (convergence)